According to one foreign intelligence agency, neighbours in Lausanne, where the North Korean leader Kim Jong Un spent his high school days, remember him as “brutal and suspicious”. The boy is now 33, but he has not settled down. South Korea’s Institute for National Security Strategy reports that in the five years since assuming office, he has executed 340 people.
据某个外国情报机构透露，朝鲜领导人金正恩(Kim Jong Un)当年在洛桑的邻居记得，他是个“残忍多疑之人”。那时金正恩在洛桑读中学。当年的男孩如今33岁了，但他仍不消停。韩国国家安全战略研究所(INSS)称，在上台以来的5年里，金正恩已处决了340人。Mr Kim’s behaviour reminds me of something I was told when visiting an area of Rio de Janeiro close to the slums. I was warned to beware of groups of small children who hold up tourists with knives or even guns. They are particularly dangerous because they do not understand the consequences of using their weapons.
金正恩的所做作为，让我联想起访问里约日内卢一个邻近贫民窟的地段时被告知的事情。我得到的警告是，要提防那些儿童团伙，他们会拿刀子甚至枪支抢劫游客。他们特别危险，因为他们不理解使用那些武器有什么后果。Alliances matter especially when dealing with an unpredictable adversary. Japan is protected by an alliance with the US. For an alliance like this to work, it must be seen as indivisible to one’s adversaries.
在对付一个不可预测的对手时，结盟尤为重要。日本得到日美同盟的保护。要想让这样的同盟发挥作用，必须让对手看到，同盟关系是牢不可破的。
In the 1980s, US president Ronald Reagan stood by fellow Nato members in western Europe against the Soviet Union, which threatened to decouple the US and Europe with its inTermediate-range SS20 nuclear missiles in Warsaw Pact countries. And he stood firm with his Japanese ally in 1987, forcing the Soviets to remove all the SS20s deployed east of the Ural Mountains and targeted at Japan.
1980年代，美国总统罗纳德?里根(Ronald Reagan)坚定支持西欧的北约(Nato)成员国对抗苏联。当时，苏联在《华沙条约》(Warsaw Pact)成员国部署SS-20中程核导弹，企图以此分化美欧同盟。1987年，里根坚定地站在盟友日本一边，迫使苏联撤走了所有部署在乌拉尔山脉以东、瞄准日本的SS-20导弹。Unfortunately, the US has not always been such an exemplary ally. When President Bill Clinton visited China in 1998, he announced with some fanfare his success in getting China to agree to stop targeting missiles at the US. But he forgot about the Chinese weapons aimed at Japan.
遗憾的是，美国并非总是这样的盟友典范。1998年，时任美国总统比尔?克林顿(Bill Clinton)访问中国时，大张旗鼓地宣布已成功说服中国不再把导弹瞄准美国。但他忘记了中国瞄准日本的武器。Today, the situation is changing once again. In the recent US-Japan joint statement, President Donald Trump committed to “defend Japan through the full range of US military capabilities, both nuclear and conventional”. The statement was mainly directed at North Korea, but conveyed a strong message to China as well. The early concerns that Japanese people harboured about Mr Trump’s isolationist outlook have since receded somewhat.
如今，局势再次发生变化。在不久前的美日联合声明中，美国总统唐纳德?特朗普(Donald Trump)致力于“使用包括常规武器和核武器在内的美国全部军事实力保卫日本”。该声明主要针对朝鲜，但也向中国传递了强烈的信息。日本人民早先对于特朗普孤立主义观念的担忧现在已有所减轻。What is now crucial for the alliance is to determine where the US’s “red line” with North Korea should lie. Washington is determined to prevent Mr Kim from acquiring nuclear missiles capable of reaching American soil. But if it were to draw its red line in the middle of the Pacific Ocean, that would signal that its alliance with Japan is divisible.
目前对美日同盟而言至关重要的是，确定美国对朝鲜画出的“红线”应该落在哪里。华盛顿方面决心阻止金正恩获得射程可达美国本土的核导弹。但是，如果美国把红线划在太平洋中央，那将发出美日同盟可以分化的信号。In fact, all of Japan has been within range of North Korean nuclear-capable Nodong missiles since the 1990s. The “re-coupling” of Japanese and American security interests at this point is crucially important. For its part, Japan must act now to counter the threat from Pyongyang, although there is a limit to what it can do militarily for political and operational reasons.
事实上，自1990年代以来，日本全境都处于朝鲜可搭载核弹头的芦洞(Nodong)导弹的射程范围内。在当前这个关键时刻，日美安全利益“重新挂钩”是极其重要的。就日方而言，日本必须采取行动反制平壤的威胁，尽管出于政治和作战原因，日本能采取的军事行动是有限的。During the presidential election campaign last year, Mr Trump said he was open to Japan and South Korea building nuclear weapons in order to reduce the burden on the US. But for obvious historical and other reasons, nuclear armament is not an option for Japan. Its only choice is to strengthen the alliance with the US. The Abe administration enacted a new set of laws to allow the Self-Defense Forces to support the American military in a meaningful way. Japanese defence policy is slowly but surely changing so as to allow Tokyo to fulfil its obligations as a US ally.
特朗普在去年竞选总统期间表示，他对日本和韩国制造核武器、以减轻美国负担持开放态度。但由于显见的历史与其他原因，核武器不是日本的选择。唯一的选择就是加强与美国的同盟关系。安倍政府推动通过了一套新的法律，允许自卫队(Self-Defense Forces)以有意义的方式支持美军。日本的防务政策正在缓慢但确定无疑地发生改变，使日本能够履行作为美国盟友的义务。In the past, Japanese governments had to spend more effort on justifying the activities of the SDF with reference to the country’s highly restrictive constitution than on actually expanding the country’s defence capability. Comfortably ensconced inside the alliance with the US, Japan has increased its defence budget by only 3 per cent in the past 15 years. China, meanwhile, has increased its military spending by 540 per cent.
过去，跟真正扩大防务能力的工作相比，日本政府不得不花更多努力来证明自卫队行动的合法性，因为日本的和平宪法有很多限制。在日美同盟的保护伞下舒适生存的日本，国防预算在过去15年期间仅仅增加了3%。同期中国的军费支出增加了540%。
However, recent provocations by North Korea have served as a wake-up call for the Japanese. All the more so in a world now entering a more unstable era of great power contestation.
然而，近来朝鲜的挑衅成了唤醒日本人的警钟。在世界进入更不稳定的大国角力时代之际，这一事态尤其令人警醒。Japan is now at a historic turning point as it re-examines defence policy in response to very real threats. The number of escort ships deployed by the Maritime Defence Force — which has fallen by 24 per cent over the past 20 years — must be increased. Regardless of likely opposition from China, Japan must upgrade its missile defences with the Terminal High Altitude Area Defence system. Cyber warfare capability must also be drastically improved.
日本正处在一个历史性转折点，它正在针对非常真切的威胁重新审视防务政策。日本海上自卫队(Maritime Defence Force)部署的护卫舰数量——在过去20年里减少24%——必须增加。尽管可能遭到中国的反对，但日本必须用末段高空区域防御系统（THAAD，中文简称:萨德）来提升导弹防御能力。日本还必须大幅提高网络战能力。